Some notes this week:
Growth stocks are acting as a defense move again, especially given that the Fed remains on the fence about interest rate. Small caps and retail though, could still act as an anchor. For now, they both held a key area — 6-7-year business cycle lows — which means recession is currently not definitive. However, stagflation is very much a potential.
Oil prices that broke out over 80 have retested support. A trip back above 86 could be a signal that the current war in Israel might escalate into oil-rich regions like Iran. Natural Gas is also rising.
Then add on to the macro:
Dollar and the US debt which keeps growing; a huge part of the US GDP
PPI CPI — hotter than expected.
The ratio between SPY and TLT or risk to off is a concern. (HYG to TLT even more so)
Fed minutes — proceed with caution.
Overall, social unrest and anger-fueled inflation chaos is not what you want to see. And the situation appears to be becoming more and more volatile.
As picks go, our quant models are still in growth stocks, like META, TSLA, and NVDA, with stops to protect profits. Discretionary picks are light until we see further evidence of how “inside” sectors of the US economy do.
To hear and see firsthand all these points and more, please check out today’s interview with Dale Pinkert.
“I was there for the live interview. Great stuff and what Dale & co are doing with FACE is brilliant. h/t Mich and h/t Coach” — Jamie G.
This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.
“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider
Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.
Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.
Mish in the Media
Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix’s pre-market show.
In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September’s Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee’s policies.
Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.
Mish discusses what’s needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.
Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.
To quote Al Mendez, “The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her “deep dive” to interpret the present Market direction.” See Mish’s appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne here!
Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.
In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she’s watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.
Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices”, available to read here.
Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell — before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the “inside” sectors of the US economy.
Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.
Coming Up:
October 19: Live coaching
October 20: StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five
October 23: BNN Bloomberg
October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business
October 29-31: The Money Show
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY): 435 resistance.
Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance.
Dow (DIA): 338 resistance.
Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal.
Regional Banks (KRE): 39.80-42.00 range.
Semiconductors (SMH): 150 resistance, 143 support.
Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.
Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.
Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 61, bullish.
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education