Market Movers Dip Amidst Powell’s Hawkish Testimony
On Thursday, US stock index futures saw a minor decrease as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the market’s hawkish position regarding interest rate hikes. Powell’s remarks during his testimony increased expectations of further rate increases if the economy continues on its current trajectory. However, financial markets are still pricing in only a 25-basis-point rate hike in July and no additional hikes thereafter, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In the previous session, shares of mega-cap companies faced downward pressure, contributing to the third consecutive day of declines in US market movers. This occurred as Powell reinforced the Federal Reserve’s commitment to its inflation objective. As investors anticipate Powell’s second day of testimony before the US Senate Banking Committee, the yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes have seen a slight uptick.
Focus on Jobless Claims and Housing Sales Data
Investors are keeping a close watch on the upcoming publication of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 17 and housing sales data later today. These data points will provide insights into the health of the labor market and the housing sector, which are crucial indicators for the overall economic outlook. Additionally, market participants are awaiting comments from three Fed policymakers scheduled to speak after the markets open.
At 5:37 a.m. ET, the Dow e-minis registered a decline of 58 points, equivalent to 0.17%. Similarly, the S&P 500 e-minis recorded a drop of 8.75 points, representing a decrease of 0.2%. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 e-minis experienced a decline of 35 points, corresponding to a decrease of 0.23%. Most major technology and growth companies, except for Microsoft, declined between 0.2% and 2% in premarket trading.
Market Movers: Strike and Suspension Impact Spirit AeroSystems and Boeing
Spirit AeroSystems witnessed an 8.9% fall, and Boeing slipped 1.3% in premarket trading as the parts supplier announced the suspension of production at its Wichita, Kansas, plant. The decision comes after workers rejected a proposed four-year deal and announced a strike starting on June 24. This development adds to the challenges faced by the aviation industry amid ongoing labor disputes and supply chain disruptions.
The stock market’s upward trajectory this year has left some investors and strategists puzzled. Despite an earnings recession in the first quarter, expectations for a second consecutive decline in profits were considered too pessimistic. However, corporate America experienced a turnaround, reporting better-than-expected earnings per share by the end of the first quarter. This positive shift in fundamentals, combined with the market crash in 2020 and AI-related hype, contributed to the stock market’s surprising ascent.
S&P 500 Bottom Precedes Positive Earnings Revisions
Historical analysis indicates that a stock market bottom typically precedes positive earnings revisions. The S&P 500 has exhibited this pattern in previous years, and the current bear market rallies suggest a similar trend. While there was a slight deviation in the three to six-month timeframe this time, the seven-month gap between the market’s low and positive earnings revisions underscores the notion that stocks often rally before the underlying fundamentals become apparent.
Market Sentiment Reflects Powell’s Hawkish Testimony and BoE Decision
Ahead of the market opening, sentiment remains cautious. Investors are processing Powell’s hawkish remarks and anticipating his second day of testimony. The Bank of England’s interest rate decision is also in focus, adding to market uncertainty. September S&P 500 futures and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures indicate a slight decline. Market participants are weighing these factors and analyzing the performance of today’s market movers in various sectors.
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